News & Vues (Macrovue Blog)

Weekly Research Report – 29 April 2019

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:35:12 GMT

Global equity markets were mostly higher in local currency. China’s CSI 300 saw a bout of profit taking - not unusual after its 30% year-to-date rally. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.06% for the week, the other two major U.S. indexes hit record highs on Tuesday and then again Friday. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% for the week and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9% in USD. Drivers? Strong earnings reports and unexpectedly good economic growth. U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in the first quarter, up from a rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter and much better than the +1.9% expected. March-quarter earnings have been generally good, particularly from tech companies. Amazon.com ’s profits doubled while Microsoft ’s were strong enough to push its market valuation above $1 trillion (momentarily). A weak Australian dollar provided local investors with a nice windfall over the week.

Weekly Research Report – 18 March 2019

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:31:13 GMT

“History shows that time, not timing, is the key to investment success. Therefore, the best time to buy stocks is when you have money.” - Sir John Templeton (one of the world’s most successful investors).

Weekly Research Report – 20 May 2019

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:29:03 GMT

Global equity markets were mixed for the week but considering we are now officially in a trade war not a bad result. Local investors given a nice boost last week with a markedly weaker Australian dollar. Still it was a roller coaster week. All three major indexes closed with deep losses on Monday (the S&P 500 fell 2.4%, its biggest one-day loss since January) after China said it would impose 25% tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods, in retaliation for increased U.S. tariffs last week. Markets then proceeded to recover nicely with a three day rally during the week and if not for a late sell off on Friday afternoon (sparked by CNBC reporting that trade talks between China and the U.S. have stalled) would have finished the week only marginally lower.

Trade continues to dominate international headlines, although on a more positive note, the U.S. announced plans to lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, paving the way for Congress’ approval of the new North American trade deal. Elsewhere, U.S. officials announced they would delay the decision to implement tariffs on auto-related imports from the European Union and Japan by 180 days. News of the delay buoyed European stocks, which managed to close the week firmly in positive territory.

Weekly Research Report – 6 May 2019

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:25:31 GMT

Global equity markets were mostly positive for the week. Japan and China exchanges were closed. U.S. markets underpinned by very solid economic data with personal spending, consumer confidence, factory orders, pending home sales and Q1 productivity all coming in much better than expected. Employment gains were strong (+263,000 jobs created in April) with unemployment now at a 50 year low! US unemployment is now 3.6%, the lowest level since December 1969. Looks like that recession forecast by pundits earlier in 2019 has been called off! S&P 500 and Nasdaq now at all time highs.

4 companies benefiting from an ageing population

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:23:46 GMT

The world population is aging, with variations by country. By mid-century, projections indicate that 16 percent of the world population will be ages 65 and older, up from 9 percent now. The percentage of people in this age bracket in the world’s more-developed countries is projected to reach 27 percent, up from 18 percent now.

Weekly Research Report – 26 November 2018

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:23:05 GMT

No joy in global markets last week in what was essentially a three-day week in the U.S. due to Thanksgiving. U.S. markets are ignoring (for now) stellar 3Q earnings, a strong economy and historically low unemployment. A weaker Australian dollar lessened the pain for domestic investors.

Weekly Research Report – 22 April 2019

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:22:14 GMT

Another good week for global equities. Positive U.S. bank earnings, combined with improving leading indicators (all-time low unemployment claims and March retail sales up 1.6% - beating expectations of 0.9%) provided support for U.S markets. The Mueller Report was also largely a nonevent from a market standpoint. Chinese economic data was encouraging (see comments below). Note the CSI 300 was up 3.6% on the week, trading at the highest levels in a year. Aussie dollar depreciation provided a slight tailwind.

Weekly Research Report – 13 May 2019

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:18:53 GMT

Well it had to happen eventually - a market correction! Markets encountered their first real correction in 2019 after the U.S. announced it would increase tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese imports. Markets had been expecting a resolution to the ongoing trade conflict given the generally positive news flow over the past 5 months.

That said, the S&P 500 Index is just 3% off its all-time closing highs despite headlines noting this is the worst week of returns since December 2018. While this kind of volatility can be uncomfortable, investors need to focus on long-term fundamentals (which remain positive) rather than daily headlines. Corporate earnings are ultimately the long-term determinant of market returns, and U.S. companies have posted better-than-feared results this quarter thus far. U.S. economic data is supportive and so is the Federal Reserve.

News flow concerning trade will continue to move markets but fortunately China has invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to Beijing to continue trade negotiations, according to White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow. At time of writing, China hasn’t yet responded with retaliatory measures, unlike in past rounds of escalation when it raised duties on U.S. goods. Also, China has more limited tariff options, since it imports far fewer products from the U.S. Suspect some type of deal will be done-eventually.

5 Steps to Investing in Disruptive Technologies

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:12:49 GMT

Disruption is everywhere, from the Internet of Things to robotics, renewables and cloud computing—our world is changing fast. Your investment strategy should keep pace and investing in disruptive technologies is a must for investors seeking out-performance.

Weekly Research Report – 19 November 2018

Clay Carter — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 19:11:23 GMT

Several factors have been mentioned regarding last week’s pullback, including some profit taking following the big bounce over the prior two weeks.